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“At the beginning of the war, we had several battalions that were combat ready, and they totaled close to 10,000. Obviously, this is not enough to damage Ukraine, but for Lukashenko, losing those could be a problem,” she said. Show morear, and how can we apply those lessons to make sure we don’t sleepwalk into yet another war? FP’s Winter 2023 print issue brings together 12 experts to help us answer those questions. A November intelligence report by the British Ministry of Defense reported that two MiG-31K Foxhound interceptor jets were likely parked at the airfield in Machulishchy, in southern Minsk. There have been reported sightings in the region of a canister that’s believed to hold the Russian air ballistic missile Kinzhal , the crown jewel of the MiG-31K arsenal.
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The Russian Army Is Preparing for a Fresh Attack
Enter the new year better informed—and equipped to help solve—humanity’s biggest problems. Estimates of the number of troops currently at the border vary wildly, but Ukrainian security sources say they are preparing for more than 30,000 troops, including Russian reinforcements. Liubakova said Belarusian forces are a fraction of that figure.
According to Artyom, among the central motivations for Belarusian soldiers to remain in the military is explicit pressure by the government. “There were rumors that passports will be taken away from the military,” he said. Signs are growing that an invasion from the north could be imminent. Distance from kindergarten and the school is acceptable.
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How will the various crises in the world play out in 2023, and what can the international community do to mitigate the catastrophe? And how can populations in need receive proper aid? There’s no one better to ask for answers to these questions than Miliband, who will be in conversation with FP’s Ravi Agrawal. Expect the discussion to cover a broad range of topics, from food insecurity in South Sudan to the human displacement in Ukraine, as well as gang violence and poor sanitation in Haiti and the wreckage from years of war in Syria.
Many experts take it as a sign that Belarus is likely to be the next front in Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Belarus, a country often described as Europe’s last dictatorship, has largely kept its military out of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, but there are growing signs that may soon change. There has been an increase in trains transporting soldiers and equipment from the Russian border to the town of Brest in southwestern Belarus close to the border with NATO member Poland.
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According to one widely read group, on one day last week 310 soldiers, along with equipment, were transported to Brest from the northeastern city of Vitebsk, about 60 kilometers from the Russian border. Meanwhile, satellite images show the movement of military vehicles through newly cut zig-zagging roads in another forested border region. This has worried Kyiv, which believes more than 20,000 Russian troops could mix with Belarusian battalions to form a new front. Recent satellite images of Belarus show newly carved forest roads and the movement of a slow stream of military equipment to Ukraine’s northern border.
Essential analysis of the stories shaping geopolitics on the continent. Your guide to the most important world stories of the day. Vadzim Kabanchuk, deputy commander of the Kastus Kalinouski Regiment—a regiment of Belarusian volunteers under the Armed Forces of Ukraine—believes Belarus will soon enter the war. “Eight out of 10 people in the military do not want to fight in this war. If they enter Ukraine, the military will fall apart.
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Download the FP mobile app to read anytime, anywhere. Evening roundup with our editors’ favorite stories of the day. By submitting your email, you agree to the Privacy Policy and Terms of Use and to receive email correspondence from us. Minsk enabled Moscow in its Ukraine war. For Artyom, who is one of a handful of high-level defectors from Belarus, it’s easy to see how joining the war in Ukraine could create chaos for Europe’s last dictator. There is a large amount of support for Russia inside the army but also a lack of motivation to fight for Putin.
They will surrender—either by going to prison, or they will defect to our side. Lukashenko knows this, so he is trying to avoid it. That said, I think that the conflict will be escalated further outside of his control, including full mobilization and the involvement of Belarus’s military,” he said. Most agree that Lukashenko is reluctant to send his own troops to fight in Ukraine due to his precarious security situation at home following a series of mass protests in 2020 that were brutally repressed and led to mass political arrests.
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